"Grim outlook for bushfires this summer"

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colin
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"Grim outlook for bushfires this summer"

Post by colin » Fri Nov 12, 2010 6:11 am

I guess if it makes the news it is official?

Nothing we didn't already know.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa ... is-summer/

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Re: "Grim outlook for bushfires this summer"

Post by Helitak_670 » Fri Nov 12, 2010 11:02 am

Ok, POTENTIAL bad fire season.
I beg to differ about the fuel loadings, as its really a hit and miss in regards to how much "grass" was grown this winter. (OH and I have been around a lot of the Metro/southern WA recently) Yes its very dry at the moment. Its also very interesting to note how the Bureau of meteorology contradicts its predictions. If you have a look at the prospective rainfall and temperature outlook you will see that there is a greater than mean average rainfall for the SWLD, however if you go and have a look at the prediction on how much rain for Nov-Jan its less than 50% chance of greater than 25mm! So its going to be very interesting.

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Re: "Grim outlook for bushfires this summer"

Post by gkoutlis » Fri Nov 12, 2010 11:05 am

I fear the hype being made will further fuel the pyro-maniacs to want to light up....

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colin
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Re: "Grim outlook for bushfires this summer"

Post by colin » Fri Nov 12, 2010 11:43 am

Likewise, doesn't look like much fuel out here, but there wasn't much in some of those paddocks in Toodyay either.

I was told earlier this week that the (I forget correct terms, so I paraphrase) ground moisture content is already below the figure were a fire would be expected to go out overnight. - If I recall correctly that isn't supposed to happen until Jan of Feb? (I may be wrong on these dates.)



It would be nice to think that we have already had all the pyro's (and big fires) for the season....

Ahem, I'm awake now....

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Re: "Grim outlook for bushfires this summer"

Post by Helitak_670 » Fri Nov 12, 2010 1:44 pm

KBDI
Bickley 81 Forrest Drought Factor 7.5
Jandakot 87 9.0
Mundaring 93 6.9
Northam 126 8.8
Perth Airport 79 8.3
Perth Metro 73 6.8
York 129 9.0

SDI Pearce is about 145
SDI Bickley is about 102

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Re: "Grim outlook for bushfires this summer"

Post by colin » Fri Nov 12, 2010 1:53 pm

cool, - Where do the numbers come from? (A reference, not how they are calculated:-)

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Re: "Grim outlook for bushfires this summer"

Post by VK6TNC » Fri Nov 12, 2010 2:14 pm

colin wrote:cool, - Where do the numbers come from? (A reference, not how they are calculated:-)
Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI)
A numerical value reflecting the dryness of soils, deep forest litter, logs and living vegetation, and expressed as a scale from 0 - 200 where the number represents the amounts of rainfall (mm) to return the soil to saturation.

Hope this helps...

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