Fire Weather

[newbie]

Hi all I've been reading the topics for a while and thought I should sign up and start writing some!

I did notice there arn't any topics on fire weather and thought it would be a good subject to chat about, seeming there is a full week coming with possible thunderstorms with very little rain it is probably a good time to start the thread.

Here is whats on the cards

Forecast for Perth


--------------Forecast--------------Min./Max.-------Chance of Rain, Likely Amount-----9am Wind RH-----3pm Wind RH
Saturday Possible thunderstorm----19°C - 33°C---------------40%, < 1mm-----------ENE 20km/h 66%-SSW 6km/h 41%
Sunday Possible thunderstorm------21°C - 35°C--------------50%, < 1mm-----------ESE 7km/h 61%---SW 15km/h 41%
Monday Possible thunderstorm------22°C - 36°C--------------50%, 1-5mm-----------ESE 13km/h 68%--SW 16km/h 46%
Tuesday Possible thunderstorm-----21°C - 32°C--------------30%, < 1mm-----------SSE 17km/h 73%--S 22km/h 54%
Wednesday Possible thunderstorm--22°C - 32°C--------------50%, < 1mm-----------SE 21km/h 66%---S 29km/h 54%
Thursday Mostly cloudy--------------22°C - 32°C--------------30%, < 1mm-----------ESE 24km/h 62%--SSE 18km/h 42%

[dlcat1]

I find the topic of weather and its impact on fire behaviour quite fascinating. I remember quite clearly the effect of the 1030(or so) inversion layer break up had on fires around Sydney, as well as the notice we took of swifts and spinetails riding the pre-frontal winds. Generally if you saw them it meant you had less than 30 minutes before the wind change arrived which was great warning if you weren't getting special bulletins.

I was lucky enough to find a report on the weather associated with 1983 Ash Wednesday fires in the UNSW library back in 98 and was it ever a good a read. If I can find it I'll post it here.

References:

A good starting point for those unfamilair with fire weather and a summary of what to watch for on the charts in the different states.
http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/services_p ... .htm#start

In 2003, the modelled FDI in Canberra passed 107 on 18 Jan. http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/biodiv ... s_clem.pdf

(Anecdotally, It went higher a week or so later prompting the authorities to warn south coast residents (130 odd Kms away) they had a matter of hours if containment lines were broken.)

A list of papers (not all weather related) on the 2003 fires over east.
http://www.australianalps.environment.g ... graphy.pdf

Anatomy of a plume driven fire
http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/DSE/nrenfoe.n ... EA0013F3CB

Formation of a fire Tornado.
http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/DSE/nrenfoe.n ... enDocument

[WPXZBP]

Last year I attended a fire weather course run by FESA. Two retired BoM gentlemen delivered the course. Was excellent information and very worthwhile.

If it's offered in your area and you're in one of the fire services try to attend.

[newbie]

I was a member of a volly unit a few years back so did a few courses with them, from memory the advanced fire fighter course had a bit on weather, in my opinion a fire weather course should be a standard course for all members of brigades. WA has been very lucky over the past few years, there has been a few town sites saved simply because the weather changed at the last moment, sadly it wouldn't take much for the opposite to happen though and it takes even less for crews to get trapped in the dead man zone, being aware of even the slightest weather changes and just how much it can effect bushfires is a critical aspect of safe and efficient fire fighting.

[newbie]

Quite a tight cell going through Karnet at the moment, looks like it would be producing alot of lightning, depending on the amount of rain you will probably find a few fires might pop up there later this arvo or over the next few days.

[dlcat1]

Quite a tight cell going through Karnet at the moment, looks like it would be producing alot of lightning, depending on the amount of rain you will probably find a few fires might pop up there later this arvo or over the next few days.

I check this link to see how much lightning is hitting an area.
http://www.gpats.com.au/php/cust-cgi/LIAS_free.php

[gkoutlis]

Looks like there is more on the way...

G

[written_ficton]

Bring in on!!!!! COME ON!

[newbie]

Thats a good link, other one is http://firewatch.dli.wa.gov.au/landgate ... public.asp , just use the options on the side to add the strikes you can zoom in a little closer than the other map.

[dlcat1]

Thats a good link, other one is http://firewatch.dli.wa.gov.au/landgate ... public.asp , just use the options on the side to add the strikes you can zoom in a little closer than the other map.

Thanks newbie, I forgot about that. I mainly use GPATS because it loads so fast. If I need more resolution I can got to firewatch.

One of these day I've got to ask work if they'll let me code the lightning strike and modis and Noaa hotpsot data into our mapping system so we get updates.

[newbie]

Another good one is http://www.weatherzone.com.au/stormtracker.jsp the only issue with it is you have to pay if you want to zoom in, but they do have fire and lightning options for the map.

[dlcat1]

Not WA, but Victoria looks like somewhere I would prefer not to be come Saturday.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/530 ... wednesday/

With the FDI off the scale, I can only hope no arson occurs.

[observer]

Very extreme FDI's in Victoria. FFDI above 200. From memory around 50-60 was a trigger point for Total Fire Bans. I don't think there has ever been such a high and wide spread FDI as expected on Saturday.

[dlcat1]

Very extreme FDI's in Victoria. FFDI above 200. From memory around 50-60 was a trigger point for Total Fire Bans. I don't think there has ever been such a high and wide spread FDI as expected on Saturday.

FFDI I've seen that mentioned several times but don't know what it is. Is it different from the old FDI?

[Tyranus]

Forecast Fire Danger Index? Not sure exactly but that's my guess as a FDI would be a definite measurement.